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The U.S. stock market is on the retreat. After peaking in the middle of July at 5669 on the S&P 500, U.S. stocks have fallen by as much as -5%.

Technology stocks have been a force behind capital market gains for nearly a decade.

History does not repeat, but it sure can rhyme. We are heading into the prime of the political election season, and with the various speeches and pontifications from our leading candidates comes statements that end up having meaningful market consequences.

The U.S. stock market much like most of the country this summer remains blazing hot. The S&P 500 has already notched a +18% year to date return, and every single trading day so far in July has brought with it a new all-time high for the benchmark index. How much longer should we expect these blistering stock returns to continue through the rest of the summer?

It is the Fourth of July holiday in the United States. With this spirit in mind, it is a good time to take a look at how well the U.S. stock market continues to move independently from the rest of the world in keeping with a tradition that has gone on for many years now.

The first half of 2024 is just about officially in the books. It has been a rousing start to the year so far for the U.S. stock market. Following such strong performance in the first six months of the year, what can investors reasonably expect through the rest of 2024? The good news is that investors have a variety of reasons to remain constructive and optimistic. The outlook is not without risks, however.

The U.S. stock market is off to a roaring start in 2024. We are not even half way through the year yet, and the S&P 500 Index is higher by more than +15%. Sounds fantastic, right? It is definitely great news on a headline basis, but unfortunately all is not necessarily well with the broader stock market. A closer look underneath the surface reveals that the market is not nearly as healthy as the headline return might imply.

Actual FY 2023 Preliminary FY 2024 Y-O-Y Change Receipts 2994 3288 294 Outlays 4159 4492 332 Deficit -1165 -1203 -38 Source: Congressional Budget Office “The federal government pays for the deficit by printing money.”  How many times have you heard or read those sentiments?  Many Americans are under the impression that Washington, when confronted with fiscal shortfalls, responds by churning …

That was fast.  It was just one week ago that this Chief Market Strategist was putting pen to paper to raise early warning signals about potential signs of economic slowing amid an environment where inflationary pressures were bubbling underneath the surface.

So much feels great about capital markets as summertime temperatures heat up. But the U.S. economy is offering up a soft and cool economic twist with the start of the beach season. As fireworks like NVIDIA continue its march past $3 trillion toward becoming the largest company in the world by market cap and GameStop is suddenly back to posting daily stock price doubles, it’s important to also keep an eye on the daily economic waves rolling in throughout the summer.