The bond market sustained its latest broadside from the U.S. hot economic data warship on Thursday. Not only did the advance reading for 2024 Q1 U.S. GDP come in weaker than expected, but inflation readings also came in hotter than expected.
Economic & Market Report: How Low Can We Go
The long overdue correction has finally arrived. No sooner did the market peak at 5264 on the last trading day of March than the calendar flipped to the start of the second quarter and the market has been moving sustainably to the downside. Now that the correction is underway, how low can we reasonably expect the market to go? Why …
Economic & Market Report: Worth Its Weight In Gold
When thinking about portfolio diversification, investor minds often focus on how much in bonds to own against their stock allocations. But as we saw most recently in 2022, limiting our diversification thinking exclusively to these two asset classes can have its limits. The good news is that capital markets offer a variety of highly liquid asset classes that are widely …
Economic & Market Report: Outlook 2024 – 3/4 Pole
Hard to believe the first quarter of 2024 is drawing to a close. As we pass the 3/4 pole in our 8 furlong race through the calendar year, it is worthwhile to assess the key market events that are now behind us and what lies ahead in the horse race to the year-end finish line. Starting gates. A key market …
Monthly Budget Review | March 2024
Actual FY 2023 Preliminary FY 2024 Y-O-Y Change Receipts 1735 1856 121 Outlays 2458 2696 228 Deficit -723 -830 -108 Source: Congressional Budget Office The 2023 Annual Report of the Federal Reserve Bank was released in March and the results were unnerving. The nation’s central bank lost $116 billion in 2023—that is, it paid out much more to its depositor …
Economic & Market Report: The Monopolistic Seven
On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) in conjunction with a bipartisan group of state attorneys general announced an antitrust lawsuit against technology giant Apple. The filing claims that Apple engaged in anticompetitive behavior through its control of the iPhone, resulting in harm to businesses and consumers. This suit is the latest in a series of recent bipartisan antitrust …
Economic & Market Report: The Ides of March
The middle of March was certainly a bad time of year for Julius Caesar, but what about capital markets? After all, it was almost exactly one year ago when investors were looking directly into the abyss of another potential financial crisis with the sudden unraveling of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and global banking giant Credit Suisse. Where do we …
Economic & Market Report: Looking Beneath The Surface
“Look beneath the surface; let not the several quality a thing nor its worth escape thee.” – Marcus Aurelius The gains in the U.S. stock market keep on coming. This includes the headline benchmark S&P 500, which is now up over +7% year to date with seemingly any and all dips (Tuesday this week) almost immediately being bought (Wednesday this week). …
Economic & Market Report: Shortness of Breadth
The U.S. stock market is flying once again this year. After posting an impressive +24% advance in 2023, a year when many prognosticators thought that the market would descend further into bear territory instead of skyrocketing, the S&P 500 Index is already up nearly +7% in 2024 so far. But a troubling characteristic continues to linger for the U.S. stock …
Monthly Budget Review | February 2024
Budget Totals Through January (billions of dollars) Actual FY 2023 Preliminary FY 2024 Y-O-Y Change Receipts 1473 1585 112 Outlays 1933 2116 183 Defecits -460 -531 -71 Source: Congressional Budget Office Last month, we pointed out that taxes withheld from paychecks have been falling in a manner which previously had been associated either with recessions, pandemics, or changes in the …